Fans tend to desire to meet immediate wants through the NFL Draft. Will Chris Grier oblige this time?
Now that Miami Dolphins general manager Chris Grier has to extend some of their youthful nucleus (most notably Tua Tagovailoa), free agency and the draft will be scrutinised more closely. Over the next few seasons, the team will need youthful, cost-controlled talent. The days of dealing first-round draft picks and enduring hefty contracts are likely over. We don’t yet know how this will affect Grier’s selection plan. Will he be forced to fill holes with draft picks, or will he seek out blue chip players at premium positions to conserve more cap room in the future?
What do the supporters want?
The fan base has a wide range of viewpoints, but the most frequent one is to target the offensive line with the first pick in the draft. The Oregon center’s name, Jackson Powers-Johnson, has gone viral on Dolphins Twitter (X). This selection makes a lot of sense for a variety of reasons. Connor Williams, the Dolphins’ starting centre for the past two seasons, is currently recovering from an injury and is no longer under contract with the team. Liam Eichenberg, the player who filled in for him at centre, struggled.
However, the Dolphins recently signed free agent Aaron Brewer, who is expected to start at centre on day one. That implies Powers-Johnson would have to be moved to guard (a position he previously played in college). You would secure the interior, but hiring a guard at twenty-one does not scream “value.”
Grier’s Draft History
Chris Grier has been with the Dolphins since 2000 and has been their general manager since 2016. Of course, he did not have complete control over the franchise until the 2018-19 summer, when Mike Tannenbaum was demoted and Adam Gase was dismissed. 2019 marked the first draft in which he had final say over any personnel decisions. Let’s see how he’s been selected in the first two rounds since then.
Defensive Tackle (First & Second)
Quarterback (first)
Offensive Tackle (1st and 2nd x2).
Corner Back (1st and 2nd)
Edge (First)
Safety (second)
Wide Receiver (First)
As a result, his most common selection was an offensive lineman. It’s worth noting that many evaluators thought two of those tackles (Eichenberg and Hunt) played on the interior. Both played tackle in their debut seasons before moving to the inside. Many people believe that the top offensive lineman are switched to tackle early in their playing careers (high school or college). In any case, Grier’s early selections tend to target tackles rather than interior college players.
He also targeted cornerback and defensive tackle twice with these early picks. As Dolphins fans are aware, interior defensive line is quickly becoming one of the most valuable positions in the NFL, but cornerback has long been one of the most crucial defensive positions. Some major positions are absent, including tight end, running back, guard, centre, and linebacker.
What pick would enrage fans?
The level of indignation would vary by fan, but as far as I can tell, the Dolphins selecting a cornerback in the first round would irritate the most people. Chris Grier stated that they had first-round ratings on fewer than 21 players, but they believe there will be 1-2 impact players available at 21. What’s interesting about this is that one of these top corners will most likely be available at pick 21.
On the NFL consensus big board, there are five corners among the top 24 players. Terrion Arnold, Quinyon Mitchell, Cooper DeJean, Nate Wiggins, and Kool-Aid McKinstry. Mitchel and Arnold are almost certain to go before Miami makes a decision, but one or two of the remaining three are likely to remain. DeJean is the most natural choice because he is more versatile and can play safety or large nickel. Will Grier go for value here and grab a corner (who might eventually replace Ramsey or Fuller), or will he trade back and fix gaps elsewhere?
Final Thoughts
One of the most common mistakes fans (myself included) make is becoming overly connected to specific draft picks. When the team inevitably ignores “your guy,” you feel upset, slighted, and as if the squad is headed in the wrong way. The Dunning-Kruger effect is a cognitive bias in which a novice in a certain field or issue has an excessive confidence in their judgement in that field. Another way to think about it is that you don’t know what you don’t know…. a lack of exposure to a field will keep you in the dark about some procedures, making judgements all the more complex. When this happens, most people believe that (insert executive/GM name) is simply ignorant and that “if I were in charge,” we would make better decisions. Of course, in 99% of cases, this is a completely stupid idea… but it feels good, doesn’t it?
All of this to imply that many general managers see the draft as a chance to lay the groundwork for their team’s future success rather than a way to fill urgent roster gaps. I believe Chris Grier is one of these general managers, and he will target the most talented player from a premium position who happens to be available at pick 21. That may mean answering a critical need in the first round with JC Latham, Brian Thomas, or Byron Murphy, or it could mean selecting Cooper DeJean or Terrion Arnold. The reality is that we won’t know if a pick was successful until a year or two later, so let’s just sit back and enjoy the wild ride that is being a Dolphins fan in late April.